I do these tier list predictions before every season based on nothing but rosters and vibes (I don't put much stock in Spring Training games). 

I'm never really all that accurate - at the start of 2023, there was no world in which I saw TEX winning the championship (had them on par with LAA), greatly overrated NYY, STL, SD, and greatly underrated BAL. As the years have gone on, I've spent less and less time watching baseball, especially outside of LAA and LAD; the past twelve months have been even worse since I moved to the UK, so I'm not holding out a ton of hope for my predictions this season, unfortunately.

The tiers are: 

1. World Series favorite
   LAD, ATL
   stray thoughts: the tier of early playoff exits. can LAD survive the pressure (and the tungsten arm curse)? can ATL finally beat (or avoid) PHI?

2. World Series contender
   HOU,  PHI, TEX, NYY
   stray thoughts: still not sold on TEX, but it's hard to discount the defending champs that didn't have subtractions in the offseason. HOU is on the downswing as they age and keep subtracting in free agency. NYY has some huge holes in the infield and question marks in the rotation especially without Cole. PHI is still good but not nearly as good as ATL.

3. playoff contender (should make the playoffs; can't see them winning the World Series, but everyone has a shot if they make the playoffs)
   BAL, AZ, STL, CIN
   stray thoughts: I think the young kids in BAL needs another year of experience before they're full contenders (maybe I'm lower on them than other people are?). AZ and CIN also on the upswing but lacks the star power of the next tier. STL has some star power that needs to rebound, but also lacks pitching.

4. playoff fringe
   CLE, MIN, TOR, SEA, SF, SD, CHC
   stray thoughts: is there any hope for the AL central to actually make noise in the playoffs? all these teams have good levels of talent but also huge holes. I see SD and SF as a tick behind AZ because of lineup depth; can't see SEA's offense as quite good enough to move up.  TOR and CHC have some pieces, but there are still a ton of holes

5. too good/proud to tank but not good enough to contend
   LAA, KC, NYM, MIA, DET, BOS, TB
   stray thoughts: LAA, NYM, BOS say all the right things about trying to win but their roster construction decisions leave much to be desired. KC, DET, MIA have good young players but aren't ready for the next step. I hate betting against the TB analytics machine, but here I am, betting against them.

6. too good to tank but would love to tank
   MIL
   stray thoughts: MIL dealing Burnes while planning to promote some of its prospects like Chourio is very confusing; by dealing Burnes, it indicates that they aren't serious about contending this year, which is what lands them in this tier

7. bad
   WAS, COL, CWS
   stray thoughts: there aren't too many teams that are straight bad, but these teams don't have much talent right now.

8. tragic
   OAK
   stray thoughts: they're bad. and not much hope to improve. The off the field issues somehow keep getting worse even after it seems like the organization has hit rock bottom.